Qilu Securities February Trade Data Review

< p > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > short term export > /a > decline without optimism.

The growth of export volume in February was significantly lower than that in January. Combined with the export data in January and February, the cumulative decline in February also decreased by 1.6% over the same period last year. There are three possible reasons: 1., the Spring Festival factor caused export enterprises to rush to work in January and demand for part of the demand for overdraft in advance; 2., the false trade resulted in a high base in the same period last year. Last year, the false trade volume increased by 23.6% compared with the same period last year. 3. the United States decreased the new orders by 13 percentage points because of the extremely cold weather PMI.

In addition, the growth rate of the ring chain in February over the past year was examined. It was found that in February, the annulus ratio decreased by 44.9%, which is the lowest value since the data and the export situation is not optimistic.

However, we believe that the cold weather in the US is only a short-term phenomenon, and there is no need to be pessimistic about exports at the later stage.

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< p > the growth rate of major products and export areas has decreased significantly.

The growth rate of high-tech products, mechanical and electrical products, textiles and clothing decreased by 13.4%, 15.7%, 28.3% and 37.1% respectively.

The growth rates of major countries have declined to varying degrees, but the decline in Europe, the United States and Japan is lower than that of emerging markets such as ASEAN and Russia.

The sharp decline in export growth in emerging market countries is mainly due to the domestic economic slowdown and the withdrawal of the QE from the Federal Reserve.

Nevertheless, as emerging market countries account for a small proportion of exports, and the recovery of the developed economies led by the US has accelerated, we are optimistic about China's exports.

Export growth is expected to be 8% in March.

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< p > import is still relatively stable.

The growth rate of imports in February was basically the same as in January. If the total imports were -2 months in January, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate was 10.1%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points over December 2013. The main reason may be that it is stocking up for the peak season.

The growth rate of imports has been relatively stable since the second half of 2013, but the fluctuation is relatively narrow. It reflects that the stock cycle has been passivated under the balance of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > economic growth < /a > bottom balance and economic kinetic energy.

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< p > the growth rate of imports of crude oil and iron ore in major import commodities has declined, while soybean growth has increased significantly.

The prices of these commodities declined slightly, while the CRB index increased by 4.5% in February. The CRB index and the import commodity prices deviated from the domestic economic recovery process.

Recent industrial level high frequency data, such as power generation and crude steel production, all show that the economy continues downward trend in February. Even if the peak season is coming, import growth will not increase significantly. Considering the high base in March, the growth rate of imports in March is forecast to be 5%.

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< p > short term < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp > RMB > /a > depreciation supporting export growth rebound.

Since February 15th, there has been a rapid devaluation of the RMB spot rate and offshore exchange rate. We believe that this is caused by the central bank's attempt to expand the range of exchange rate fluctuations and the spontaneous formation of the market. In the short term, the real effective exchange rate index of the renminbi has a leading negative effect on export growth.

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