Exchange Rate War, Trade War And Currency War Gather 2011

Round

In fact, even if the United States has launched the second round of quantitative easing policy, such a policy has not solved the problem of the United States.

Such a difference has created a new global economic landscape of deflation in the West and inflation in emerging countries.

At the same time, it also means that 2011 will be an increasingly unbalanced world, and with the increasing imbalance, the world economic structure formed after the end of the cold war is being broken.

The strategic opportunity of "taking the lead in adjusting"

China's economy has been growing at a high speed since the Asian financial turmoil in 1990s. At such a rapid rate, there must be a lot of economic fields that need to be adjusted.

If we can make reasonable adjustments, we will effectively promote industrial upgrading and eliminate backward production capacity, laying the foundation for further economic development.

Among them, China's tightening monetary policy has the strategic significance of deflation adjustment and industrial upgrading against western bubbles and liquidity input.

Indeed, the adjustment of China's economy will be very painful in the short term, but such adjustment will also make commodity prices that demand and anticipate Chinese demand "drop from the sky", and China's real estate predicament caused by rising prices and many social problems will also be alleviated.

Unlike other western countries such as the United States, China's currency is classical currency, asset currency, general equivalent and commodity, and Western currency is modern currency, the media currency, national credit and custodian credential.

One is goods and the other is credentials.

Therefore, in the same financial crisis, asset currencies need to raise interest rates to keep assets in value, while the media money is influenced by the supply and demand of the media, the money supply is much more, the interest cost of the media will drop, and it will become a negative interest rate.

The biggest difference between asset and media is whether it contains resources.

The difference between goods and vouchers is mainly to manufacture any commodity and resources, while credentials do not have resources.

Such differences can benefit from resources and redistribute the world's resources.

At present, gold, silver, copper, iron ore, crude oil and other metal and mineral resources have been creating a new historical high.

In 2011, because of the difference of currency connotation, the world's game of resources will reach a new height.

In this sense, the strategic significance of "taking the lead in adjustment" will be rapidly enlarged in 2011.

Adjust "fuse"

What is the trigger for China's economic adjustment? On the macro level, the central bank's tightening liquidity.

In 2010, the Central Bank of China raised interest rates for the two time, raised reserve requirements for the 6 time, and implemented differential reserve ratio for large commercial banks.

Tightening liquidity is a uniform charge of the whole financial system, while the entry of "hot money" is specially controlled by the regulatory authorities. This will inevitably lead to the imbalance and shock of liquidity, resulting in a partial chain reaction of liquidity shortage, which will bring the economy into readjustment.

At the same time, the "hot money" in the "pool" has become an investment or loss out, allowing the exchange rate to re-enter the RMB depreciation channel and control domestic inflation, making the "hot money" return to the United States.

Microscopically speaking, the "fuse" of China's adjustment should be the turning point for China's automobile industry to reach production.

The car restriction order, which began in January 1, 2011, will make Beijing's auto sales turn from 750 thousand to 250 thousand, making China's largest auto market 2/3 sharp.

The practice of Beijing may lead to the imitation of other cities, which will inevitably lead to a decline in car sales nationwide.

The current forecast is that in 2010, China's automobile production and sales volume exceeded 17 million vehicles, and the number of vehicles exceeded 90 million. The annual sales volume of vehicles was nearly 2 trillion yuan at the price of about 100000 yuan per vehicle, and the consumption of vehicles was close to 1 trillion yuan at the cost of 1000 yuan per vehicle per month.

The huge market of nearly 3 trillion yuan is the largest domestic demand in China besides housing and infrastructure investment. Its "inflection point" is enough to make China's industrial economy readjustment.

In the social field, the driving force of China's economic adjustment is the rise of labor costs.

Under the original western pricing mode, the price of raw materials and other resources soared and the prices of commodities were stable, which eventually led to the income of the Chinese people.

At present, reforming income distribution and raising national income is a general trend for China's rise and social harmony.

To break the original export mode of foreign trade pulling force will be a more far-reaching adjustment.

Seize the "control right"

Looking back on history, China's economic adjustment after 1993 has straightened out the economic context of China and made China enter the "golden ten years" after twenty-first Century.

Now, we should not forget the credit of China's industrial restructuring at that time, nor should we forget the pain of millions of workers being laid off at that time.

Therefore, the 2011 will also be a painful adjustment process, and it is also the time for politicians from all over the world to earn points for the coming political games.

And China's point of view is whether it is bold enough to take the initiative to enter the adjustment of the economic industry and leave the great opportunity to China itself.

If China takes the initiative to adjust, there will be economic adjustment.

Adjustment can not only control "hot money", inflation can also be controlled, excess capacity can be eliminated, and industries can be upgraded to high-end.

At the same time, the United States will not be able to export liquidity to China and other countries. The reduction of commodities in China's adjustment will enable China to get cheaper resources. Liquidity return will also make western "banknote makers" take their own stones.

However, if China has to make adjustments after the Western mobile input continues to cause hyperinflation, China will really become a loser, just like the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1998.

If China chooses to adjust its printing and liquidity input against the west, whether it is true adjustment or "diving", it is enough to frighten the wanton of "hot money".

After the adjustment of China's industry, the "hot money" that enters the industry can only become investment and become a long line of "cold money". The RMB exchange rate will also fall into a downward channel once again. The arbitrage and profit of foreign exchange on the exchange rate will become a hang up and loss.

As for the game of iron ore, if the Chinese industry has entered the adjustment and the price of steel is falling, Japan and South Korea will not dare to exorbitant the price of iron ore and swallow the bitter fruit.

After the financial crisis in 2008, behind Japan's high price signing of the iron ore import contract, it was right that China would not adjust its industry.

Therefore, the game between China and the world should have a comprehensive thinking, and there should be no ups and down.

If the banknote printing in the US can not be successfully imported into China by liquidity, it will have to go all the way.

China is now the world's "world factory". China's industrial restructuring is by no means a national matter. Those countries that rely on China's high price purchase of iron ore and other primary products to maintain economic and social development will be extremely passive. The world will also produce a far-reaching global political and economic chain reaction, like the collapse of the "Domino".

Here, whoever takes the initiative to adjust will take the lead.

In fact, after the subprime crisis, the United States has seized the initiative to adjust the financial system.

Now, in the adjustment of the real economy to adapt to the financial crisis, if China can take the initiative, it will be of great historic significance for China's further rise and sustainable development.